Integrating physiological threshold experiments with climate modeling to project mangrove species’ range expansion

Predictions of climate-related shifts in species ranges have largely been based on correlative models. Due to limitations of these models, there is a need for more integration of experimental approaches when studying impacts of climate change on species distributions. Here, we used controlled experiments to identify physiological thresholds that control poleward range limits of three species of mangroves found in North America. We found that all three species exhibited a threshold response to extreme cold, but freeze tolerance thresholds varied among species. From these experiments, we developed a climate metric, freeze degree days (FDD), which incorporates both the intensity and the frequency of freezes. When included in distribution models, FDD accurately predicted mangrove presence/absence. Using 28 years of satellite imagery, we linked FDD to observed changes in mangrove abundance in Florida, further exemplifying the importance of extreme cold. We then used downscaled climate projections of FDD to project that these range limits will move northward by 2.2–3.2 km yr⁻¹ over the next 50 years

What do evidence-based secondary journals tell us about the publication of clinically important articles in primary healthcare journals?

BACKGROUND: We conducted this analysis to determine i) which journals publish high-quality, clinically relevant studies in internal medicine, general/family practice, general practice nursing, and mental health; and ii) the proportion of clinically relevant articles in each journal. METHODS: We performed an analytic survey of a hand search of 170 general medicine, general healthcare, and specialty journals for 2000. Research staff assessed individual articles by using explicit criteria for scientific merit for healthcare application. Practitioners assessed the clinical importance of these articles. Outcome measures were the number of high-quality, clinically relevant studies published in the 170 journal titles and how many of these were published in each of four discipline-specific, secondary "evidence-based" journals (ACP Journal Club for internal medicine and its subspecialties; Evidence-Based Medicine for general/family practice; Evidence-Based Nursing for general practice nursing; and Evidence-Based Mental Health for all aspects of mental health). Original studies and review articles were classified for purpose: therapy and prevention, screening and diagnosis, prognosis, etiology and harm, economics and cost, clinical prediction guides, and qualitative studies. RESULTS: We evaluated 60,352 articles from 170 journal titles. The pass criteria of high-quality methods and clinically relevant material were met by 3059 original articles and 1073 review articles. For ACP Journal Club (internal medicine), four titles supplied 56.5% of the articles and 27 titles supplied the other 43.5%. For Evidence-Based Medicine (general/family practice), five titles supplied 50.7% of the articles and 40 titles supplied the remaining 49.3%. For Evidence-Based Nursing (general practice nursing), seven titles supplied 51.0% of the articles and 34 additional titles supplied 49.0%. For Evidence-Based Mental Health (mental health), nine titles supplied 53.2% of the articles and 34 additional titles supplied 46.8%. For the disciplines of internal medicine, general/family practice, and mental health (but not general practice nursing), the number of clinically important articles was correlated withScience Citation Index (SCI) Impact Factors. CONCLUSIONS: Although many clinical journals publish high-quality, clinically relevant and important original studies and systematic reviews, the articles for each discipline studied were concentrated in a small subset of journals. This subset varied according to healthcare discipline; however, many of the important articles for all disciplines in this study were published in broad-based healthcare journals rather than subspecialty or discipline-specific journals

Predicting Bison Migration out of Yellowstone National Park Using Bayesian Models

Long distance migrations by ungulate species often surpass the boundaries of preservation areas where conflicts with various publics lead to management actions that can threaten populations. We chose the partially migratory bison (Bison bison) population in Yellowstone National Park as an example of integrating science into management policies to better conserve migratory ungulates. Approximately 60% of these bison have been exposed to bovine brucellosis and thousands of migrants exiting the park boundary have been culled during the past two decades to reduce the risk of disease transmission to cattle. Data were assimilated using models representing competing hypotheses of bison migration during 1990–2009 in a hierarchal Bayesian framework. Migration differed at the scale of herds, but a single unifying logistic model was useful for predicting migrations by both herds. Migration beyond the northern park boundary was affected by herd size, accumulated snow water equivalent, and aboveground dried biomass. Migration beyond the western park boundary was less influenced by these predictors and process model performance suggested an important control on recent migrations was excluded. Simulations of migrations over the next decade suggest that allowing increased numbers of bison beyond park boundaries during severe climate conditions may be the only means of avoiding episodic, large-scale reductions to the Yellowstone bison population in the foreseeable future. This research is an example of how long distance migration dynamics can be incorporated into improved management policies

Reproductive factors related to the risk of colorectal cancer by subsite: a case-control analysis

The authors hypothesized that reproductive factors of colorectal cancer, which are probably mediated by endogenous hormones, would differ according to colonic subsite. Information on reproductive factors was obtained from 372 female colorectal cancer cases (113 proximal colon, 126 distal colon, 133 rectum) and 31 061 cancer-free controls at the Aichi Cancer Center Hospital, Japan, between 1988 and 1995. Multiple logistic analysis showed that late age at interview, family history of colorectal cancer among first-degree relatives, menstrual regularity, late age at menopause, late age at first pregnancy and late age at first full-term pregnancy were significantly associated with the risk of colorectal cancer. None of the risk factors were significantly dissociated between colon and rectal cancer. In polytomous logistic regression analysis, particularly noteworthy was the fact that the odds ratios for age at menarche (P-value for heterogeneity of odds ratios = 0.010), age at first pregnancy (P = 0.016) and age at first full-term pregnancy (P = 0.028) were significantly higher for distal than for proximal colon cancer. This study supports the hypotheses that there might be an association between reproductive factors and risk of colon cancer, and that the carcinogenesis of colon cancer, by subsite, might show aetiologic distinctions. © 1999 Cancer Research Campaig

The reliability and validity of three non-radiological measures of thoracic kyphosis and their relations to the standing radiological Cobb angle

UnlabelledHyperkyphosis is implicated in a mounting list of negative outcomes, including higher mortality. Hyperkyphosis research is hindered due to difficulties inherent in its measurement. By showing that three clinical measures of kyphosis are suitable for use in large scale, longitudinal, hyperkyphosis studies, we will facilitate much needed research in this field.IntroductionThe objective of this study is to describe the reliability of three non-radiological kyphosis measures (Debrunner kyphosis angle, flexicurve kyphosis index, and flexicurve kyphosis angle) and their validity compared to the Cobb angle and to approximate a Cobb angle from non-radiological kyphosis measures.MethodsWe analyzed data from 113 participants aged ≥ 60 years with kyphosis angle ≥ 40°. Cobb angle was measured on a standing lateral thoracolumbar radiograph using bounds at T4 and T12. Non-radiological measures of kyphosis were made three times by a single rater and a 4th time by a blinded second rater.ResultsIntra- and inter-rater reliabilities for non-radiological assessments were high (intra-class correlations of 0.96 to 0.98) and did not differ from each other. Pearson correlations, estimating validity, ranged from 0.62 to 0.69 and did not differ. The Debrunner angle was close to the Cobb angle, with scaling factor of 1.067 and an offset of 5°. The Flexicurve kyphosis angle had to be scaled by 1.53 to obtain the equivalent Cobb angle. The scaling factor for the Flexicurve kyphosis index to Cobb angle was 315, with an offset of 5°. Compared to the measured Cobb angle, Cobb angles predicted using the non-radiological measures had similar magnitude errors (standard deviations of the differences ranging between 10.24 and 11.26).ConclusionsEach non-radiological measurement had similar reliability and validity. Low cost, ease of use, and robustness to variations in spine contour argue for the Flexicurve in longitudinal kyphosis assessments. The approximate conversion factors provided will permit translation of non-radiological measures to Cobb angles

Jet energy measurement with the ATLAS detector in proton-proton collisions at root s=7 TeV

The jet energy scale and its systematic uncertainty are determined for jets measured with the ATLAS detector at the LHC in proton-proton collision data at a centre-of-mass energy of √s = 7TeV corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 38 pb-1. Jets are reconstructed with the anti-kt algorithm with distance parameters R=0. 4 or R=0. 6. Jet energy and angle corrections are determined from Monte Carlo simulations to calibrate jets with transverse momenta pT≥20 GeV and pseudorapidities {pipe}η{pipe}<4. 5. The jet energy systematic uncertainty is estimated using the single isolated hadron response measured in situ and in test-beams, exploiting the transverse momentum balance between central and forward jets in events with dijet topologies and studying systematic variations in Monte Carlo simulations. The jet energy uncertainty is less than 2. 5 % in the central calorimeter region ({pipe}η{pipe}<0. 8) for jets with 60≤pT<800 GeV, and is maximally 14 % for pT<30 GeV in the most forward region 3. 2≤{pipe}η{pipe}<4. 5. The jet energy is validated for jet transverse momenta up to 1 TeV to the level of a few percent using several in situ techniques by comparing a well-known reference such as the recoiling photon pT, the sum of the transverse momenta of tracks associated to the jet, or a system of low-pT jets recoiling against a high-pT jet. More sophisticated jet calibration schemes are presented based on calorimeter cell energy density weighting or hadronic properties of jets, aiming for an improved jet energy resolution and a reduced flavour dependence of the jet response. The systematic uncertainty of the jet energy determined from a combination of in situ techniques is consistent with the one derived from single hadron response measurements over a wide kinematic range. The nominal corrections and uncertainties are derived for isolated jets in an inclusive sample of high-pT jets. Special cases such as event topologies with close-by jets, or selections of samples with an enhanced content of jets originating from light quarks, heavy quarks or gluons are also discussed and the corresponding uncertainties are determined. © 2013 CERN for the benefit of the ATLAS collaboration

Measurement of the cross-section of high transverse momentum vector bosons reconstructed as single jets and studies of jet substructure in pp collisions at √s = 7 TeV with the ATLAS detector

This paper presents a measurement of the cross-section for high transverse momentum W and Z bosons produced in pp collisions and decaying to all-hadronic final states. The data used in the analysis were recorded by the ATLAS detector at the CERN Large Hadron Collider at a centre-of-mass energy of √s = 7 TeV;{\rm Te}{\rm V}$and correspond to an integrated luminosity of$4.6\;{\rm f}{{{\rm b}}^{-1}}$. The measurement is performed by reconstructing the boosted W or Z bosons in single jets. The reconstructed jet mass is used to identify the W and Z bosons, and a jet substructure method based on energy cluster information in the jet centre-of-mass frame is used to suppress the large multi-jet background. The cross-section for events with a hadronically decaying W or Z boson, with transverse momentum${{p}_{{\rm T}}}\gt 320\;{\rm Ge}{\rm V}$and pseudorapidity$|\eta |\lt 1.9$, is measured to be${{\sigma }_{W+Z}}=8.5\pm 1.7$ pb and is compared to next-to-leading-order calculations. The selected events are further used to study jet grooming techniques

Distribution and correlates of plantar hyperkeratotic lesions in older people

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Plantar hyperkeratotic lesions are common in older people and are associated with pain, mobility impairment and functional limitations. However, little has been documented in relation to the frequency or distribution of these lesions. The aim of this study was to document the occurrence of plantar hyperkeratotic lesions and the patterns in which they occur in a random sample of older people.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A medical history questionnaire was administered to a random sample of 301 people living independently in the community (117 men, 184 women) aged between 70 and 95 years (mean 77.2, SD 4.9), who also underwent a clinical assessment of foot problems, including the documentation of plantar lesion locations, toe deformities and the presence and severity of hallux valgus.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Of the 301 participants, 180 (60%) had at least one plantar hyperkeratotic lesion. Those with plantar lesions were more likely to be female (χ²= 18.75, <it>p </it>< 0.01; OR = 2.86), have moderate to severe hallux valgus (χ²= 6.15, <it>p </it>< 0.02; OR = 2.95), a larger dorsiflexion range of motion at the ankle (39.4 ± 9.3 <it>vs </it>36.3 ± 8.4°; <it>t </it>= 2.68, <it>df </it>= 286, <it>p </it>< 0.01), and spent more time on their feet at home (5.1 ± 1.0 <it>vs </it>4.8 ± 1.3 hours, <it>t </it>= -2.46, <it>df </it>= 299, <it>p </it>= 0.01). No associations were found between the presence of plantar lesions and body mass index, obesity, foot posture, dominant foot or forefoot pain. A total of 53 different lesions patterns were observed, with the most common lesion pattern being "roll-off" hyperkeratosis on the medial aspect of the 1^stmetatarsophalangeal joint (MPJ), accounting for 12% of all lesion patterns. "Roll-off" lesions under the 1^stMPJ and interphalangeal joint were significantly associated with moderate to severe hallux valgus (<it>p </it>< 0.05), whereas lesions under the central MPJs were significantly associated with deformity of the corresponding lesser toe (<it>p </it>< 0.05). Factor analysis indicated that 62% of lesion patterns could be grouped under three broad categories, relating to medial, central and lateral locations.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Plantar hyperkeratotic lesions affect 60% of older people and are associated with female gender, hallux valgus, toe deformity, increased ankle flexibility and time spent on feet, but are not associated with obesity, limb dominance, forefoot pain or foot posture. Although there are a wide range of lesion distribution patterns, most can be classified into medial, central or lateral groups. Further research is required to determine whether these patterns are related to the dynamic function of the foot or other factors such as foot pathology or morphology.</p

Search for pair-produced long-lived neutral particles decaying to jets in the ATLAS hadronic calorimeter in ppcollisions at √s=8TeV

The ATLAS detector at the Large Hadron Collider at CERN is used to search for the decay of a scalar boson to a pair of long-lived particles, neutral under the Standard Model gauge group, in 20.3fb−1of data collected in proton–proton collisions at √s=8TeV. This search is sensitive to long-lived particles that decay to Standard Model particles producing jets at the outer edge of the ATLAS electromagnetic calorimeter or inside the hadronic calorimeter. No significant excess of events is observed. Limits are reported on the product of the scalar boson production cross section times branching ratio into long-lived neutral particles as a function of the proper lifetime of the particles. Limits are reported for boson masses from 100 GeVto 900 GeV, and a long-lived neutral particle mass from 10 GeVto 150 GeV

Search for new phenomena in final states with an energetic jet and large missing transverse momentum in pp collisions at √ s = 8 TeV with the ATLAS detector

Results of a search for new phenomena in final states with an energetic jet and large missing transverse momentum are reported. The search uses 20.3 fb−1 of √ s = 8 TeV data collected in 2012 with the ATLAS detector at the LHC. Events are required to have at least one jet with pT > 120 GeV and no leptons. Nine signal regions are considered with increasing missing transverse momentum requirements between Emiss T > 150 GeV and Emiss T > 700 GeV. Good agreement is observed between the number of events in data and Standard Model expectations. The results are translated into exclusion limits on models with either large extra spatial dimensions, pair production of weakly interacting dark matter candidates, or production of very light gravitinos in a gauge-mediated supersymmetric model. In addition, limits on the production of an invisibly decaying Higgs-like boson leading to similar topologies in the final state are presente